NOAA Forecasts a Below-Normal 2026 Hurricane Season, but Property Claim Disputes Still Need a Plan

NOAA’s National Weather Service released its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 21, at a press conference held at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida ¹. Forecasters predict a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season ¹. The season runs from June 1 through November 30 ¹.

What NOAA is forecasting

NOAA expects 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, and it has 70 percent confidence in those ranges ¹. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes ¹.

The agency says its forecast reflects influences pulling in opposite directions. Forecasters expect an El Niño to form and strengthen as the season goes on, a pattern that tends to suppress storms, while Atlantic ocean temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds weaker than average, conditions that favor a more active year ¹.

NOAA was careful to say what the outlook is not. It is a forecast of overall seasonal activity, not a landfall forecast, and it does not indicate where or when storms may strike ¹². The Climate Prediction Center adds that hurricane-related disasters can occur in any season, even years with low overall activity, and that “it only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster” ². National Weather Service Director Ken Graham made the same point: “It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season” ¹.

NOAA also announced changes this season, including an improved forecast cone graphic from the National Hurricane Center that will show tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas ¹.

Why a quieter forecast does not mean fewer disputes

For attorneys, adjusters and policyholders in South Florida, the number that matters is not the seasonal count but whether a storm reaches a particular neighborhood. NOAA’s outlook does not predict activity for any particular location ², and the Climate Prediction Center urges coastal and near-coastal residents, businesses and agencies to prepare for every season regardless of any outlook ². Disputed claims from a single storm can reach the mediation table long after the season ends.

The early weeks of a season are a good time for counsel and carriers to prepare, regardless of the forecast:

• Documentation. Pre-loss photographs, maintenance records and roof inspection reports often become central when causation or the age of damage is contested. Policyholders’ counsel can encourage clients to gather them now.
• Estimates and experts. Mediations move faster when both sides exchange estimates and engineering or causation reports before the session, rather than presenting them for the first time in caucus.
• Authority. Carriers should confirm that the representative attending mediation has settlement authority adequate to the realistic range of the claim. Sessions stall when authority has to be sought by phone.
• Remote logistics. Storm-related claims can involve parties who have relocated or are living in temporary housing. Confirming devices, connections and a quiet place to participate helps a video session run smoothly.

A season of uncertainty

NOAA’s forecast offers some reason for cautious optimism, but the agency itself urged residents to review preparedness plans now and not wait for a storm to threaten ¹. The same advice applies to the legal side of a storm: claims that are organized early tend to resolve more efficiently, whether through negotiation, appraisal, mediation or trial.

Tony Roca is a Florida Supreme Court Certified Circuit Civil and Family Mediator who has conducted more than 4,000 mediations. Counsel and adjusters can check his live availability and book a mediation online, by Zoom statewide.